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11/14/2017
Economic Publications

All Coface Publications

11/14/2017
Economic Publications

Morocco: drawing out of payment periods, a perplexing trend?

Contrary to 2016, which was characterized by a low economic growth of 1.4%, 2017 is marked by higher expectations with growth expected to exceed 4%. Paradoxically, the question of payment periods and delays has never been more current now in this context.

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11/14/2017
Economic Publications

Argentina legislative elections: is the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake?

Since Mauricio Macri took office in mid-December 2015, the economy has started to recover. The exchange rate was liberalised during Macri’s first week in office, price controls were removed, import barriers were lifted, discredited national economic statistics were revamped, subsidies were reduced and the holdout saga was finally resolved in April 2016. The last of these measures allowed the country to regain access to the international financial market after a hiatus of 15 years. Coface subsequently upgraded Argentina’s country assessment to B1 in December 2016. The positive trend did however come, as expected, with short term side effects. Inflation picked up to 41 % in the end of the first year of government, reducing household purchasing power and leading the economy into recession (GDP -2.2 % in 2016). Social protests flourished in response.

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11/14/2017
Economic Publications

Are bond markets the new “spare tyre” for corporates in emerging economies?

If the year 2017 is synonymous with a slight economic upturn in the emerging markets, let’s not forget the previous three years were marked by increased corporate risk. The reasons for this were numerous: declining commodity
prices, high corporate indebtedness, production overcapacity, political risk at the highest level, etc. In this tumultuous environment, businesses have also had to deal with tighter credit conditions from banking institutions.

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11/14/2017
Economic Publications

China-Africa: Will the marriage of convenience last?

Wolf Warrior 2, released in July 2017, became the first non-Hollywood movie to break into the top 100 highest-grossing film of all time at the global box office. The action movie portrays China as Africa’s protector. Just four days after the release of the movie, China opened its first overseas military base on the coast of Djibouti, embodying the message of the movie. China has demonstrated a particular interest in Djibouti, a small country in the Horn of Africa, as a gateway to the continent, especially since the first Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).

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09/26/2017
Economic Publications

Time to address the infrastructure gap in Latin America

During the commodity super-cycle that lasted over a decade, until around 2014, Latin American economies showed robust performance. Growth was possible even in the context of generally weak infrastructure. Higher revenues from the exports of primary goods led to the expansion of public and private domestic consumption. Activity throughout these years was driven by the flourish of an emerging middle class and by populist governments that disregarded the cyclical feature of commodities.

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09/08/2017
Economic Publications

Automotive and transport is the leading sector in the region CEE

The Top 500 companies generated EUR 580 billion in 2016 – a minor decrease of 0.6% – and experienced a greater downturn in net profit by -3.1% to EUR 26.3 billion. In contrast to the decrease in turnover and net profit, employment rates boomed. The CEE Top 500 companies employed 4.5% of the total labour force in the region, strengthening their workforce significantly by +3.9% to 2.2 million people. This development was reflected in the declining unemployment rates in the region.

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09/08/2017
Corporate Publications

Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sector

Despite some slowdown last year, average GDP growth remained at a solid level of 2.9% in Central and Eastern Europe. Economies have been benefiting from the favourable situation on the labour market, with contracting unemployment rates and rising wages. The improving macroeconomic environment has had positive effects on business. Company insolvencies dropped by 14% in 2015 and a further 6% in 2016. Over the course of last year, 6 entities per 1,000 became insolvent.

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08/07/2017
Economic Publications

Latin America: The winners and losers of “Trumponomics”

Political changes in the US have caused uncertainty over the trade policies that could be implemented and the region’s vulnerability to tighter financial conditions. Since Donald Trump’s victory, the currencies of many emerging countries have fallen against the dollar. Mexico’s currency was the most greatly affected in the world, with 19 % depreciation against the USD in 2016. This is the country’s worst depreciation since the Tequila crisis in 1994. By contrast, the US stock market reacted positively following Trump’s victory announcement.

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07/24/2017
Economic Publications

FOCUS - Tough Funding Conditions for GCC Corporates

Oil prices declined by around 75% between mid-2014 and January 2016, with Brent crude prices falling as low as $28 a barrel. Since then, prices have risen back up by nearly 85%, to around $50 a barrel. Nevertheless, persistently low prices are continuing to weigh on liquidity conditions across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Firstly, these countries are still heavily dependent on oil, despite efforts made towards greater economic diversification.

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06/08/2017
Economic Publications

Panorama - In the face of Brexit, are British businesses left to sink or swim?

One year after the “yes” vote for Brexit, seen as traumatic, the time has come for the United Kingdom to accelerate the implementation of its exit from the European Union (EU). Prime Minister Theresa May wants to have free rein by calling early legislative elections on 8 June, where her victory is expected.

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06/06/2017
Economic Publications

Russia – From Recession to Recovery

Between 1999 and 2008, Russia’s GDP grew by an average of almost 7% per year. In 2009, the fall in oil prices led to a severe recession (-7.8%). Subsequently, the effect of factors that had supported growth ceased

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05/18/2017
Economic Publications

Panorama - UAE payments survey : slight payment delays expected, due to slower growth

At a time when businesses are facing a decline in demand and liquidity issues, a sharper look into payment behaviour is a must.

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05/04/2017
Economic Publications

Panorama - Labour Shortages in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE)

Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve. Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average.

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05/04/2017
Economic Publications

Focus - Insolvencies in the construction industry in France: Interest Rates are Key

Since the low of 2014, glimmers of recovery have been seen in the construction industry. Corporate insolvencies are declining. French households are increasingly attracted by bricks and mortar as their purchasing power is at its strongest since 2003, particularly due to interest rates also being at historic lows.

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04/06/2017
Economic Publications

Panorama: RMB depreciation - What are the implications for Chinese corporates?

The potential depreciation of the renminbi (RMB), along with the implementation of capital flow measures, are longstanding concerns for China.

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04/06/2017
Economic Publications

Panorama - The rise and rise of political risks

Political risk seems to have been at the core of concerns since 2016, following numbers of articles and editorials on the topic.

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04/06/2017
Economic Publications

Panorama - Coface Global Growth

Signs of a recovery in global growth are multiplying at the start of 2017. Companies are more confident. If the uptrend in inflation in developed economies and in China takes shape in coming months and does not only concern energy prices, it would testify to a distancing of deflation risk.

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02/10/2017
Corporate Publications

Panorama: Coface Brazil corporate payment survey

Brazilian companies are currently faced with a challenging environment. GDP underwent an accumulated contraction of 7.4% during the two years of 2015-2016.

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01/25/2017
Economic Publications

Country risk assessment map - January 2017 - 4th quarter 2016

Despite the recent economic upturn, uncertainties will continue to dominate the global economic climate this year.

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01/25/2017
Economic Publications

Panorama: An economic upturn in the face of uncertainty

Starting with falling oil prices and financial markets in the winter, the Brexit referendum in the summer and the election of Donald Trump in the autumn, 2016 was punctuated by a series of upsets.

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